King of Craps

"Hedging" is making one bet to
"protect" another.

You'll frequently see players make a $5 (or $10) Pass Line bet
and then hedge it with a $1 Any Craps bet. If the shooter rolls anything but a craps on the come-out roll, the Any Craps bet loses (but it's only $1, so it's not too painful).

If the shooter rolls a craps on the come-out, the $5 Pass Line loses,
but the $1 Any Craps wins. The casino odds for Any Craps is 7:1, so the player wins $7. The player believes that the $1 Any Craps bet "protects" the $5 Pass Line bet from losing on the come-out roll.

Another less common hedge bet is using a $1 Hard 6 or 8 to help protect the
player's Don't Pass with Odds. For example, suppose you make a $5 Don't Pass
bet, the point is 8, and you then lay $12 in Odds against the point. You then
make a $2 Hard 8 bet to essentially take away one of the ways you can lose the
Don't Pass. If the shooter makes her point by rolling 8 the Hardway (i.e., 4-4),
your Don't Pass with Odds lose. However, in this example, the shooter made her
point by rolling 8 the Hardway, so your $2 Hard 8 bet wins. Casino odds for the
Hard 8 are 9:1, so you win $18. Therefore, your $17 Don't Pass with Odds bets
lose but you're "protected" because your Hard 8 bet wins $18. The bad news
about this hedge bet is that, if the shooter makes her point the easy way (i.e., 6-2,
2-6, 5-3, or 3-5), then you lose both your Don't Pass and Hard 8 bets.

Hedging sounds fairly smart, right? In the short-term, maybe. In the long-term,
definitely not. If you hit a 20-minute stretch of time where the distribution goes
crazy and every other roll produces a 2, 3, or 12, then maybe a $1 Any Craps is a
good hedge to protect your Pass Line bet. Maybe. If it works and you win a few
Any Craps bets, then the table will think you're a genius. But in the long-term,
you'll lose. The crazy variance in the distribution that shows a 2, 3, or 12 every
other roll won't last long. Therefore, if you consistently hedge your bets, you'll lose
over time. Why?

Remember, for the player, craps is a negative expectation game. Everything on
the table (except the true odds bet) is a negative for the player. No possible
combination of negative-expectation bets exists that yields a positive expectation.
In other words, you can't mix two or more negative-expectation bets into
something that's in your favor. It's important to understand that concept. Using a
bad bet (e.g., Any Craps, Hardway) to hedge a good bet (e.g., Pass Line, Don't
Pass) only makes the good bet worse.

If you can't control the urge to use hedges, then do it carefully. You might think,
"What difference does it make? It's only a buck. A measly buck is worth it to
protect my $5 Pass Line." That kind of thinking will take you straight to the poor
house. Those measly $1 chips quickly add up over a few hours of play. Before
you know it, you've peed away $50 on hedge bets and you're scratching your head
wondering where your money went.

Better yet, order the Play to Win Series get all the
information you need to play craps like a Vegas pro without losing your shirt.


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